CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-12-12T03:54:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from Forecast Discussion below)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2013 Dec 13 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. There were two filament
eruptions during the period with associated coronal mass ejections
(CMEs). The first was a 15 degree filament, centered near S31W41, that
was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery lifting off the solar disk from
12/0304 UTC to 12/0330 UTC. In H-alpha imagery, it appeared that the
eruption was connected to Region 1912 (S21W64, Hsx/alpha) and was
largely responsible for the C4/Sf flare at 12/0336 UTC. The eruptive
filament structure had an associated Type II (estimated at 511 km/s) and
Type IV radio sweeps as well as a partial halo CME first observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 12/0336 UTC. A 7-degree filament eruption
centered near S32E27 was observed from approximately 12/0451 UTC to
12/0624 UTC. The filament eruption appeared in conjunction with the C3
flare at 12/0659 UTC from Region 1917 (S15E04, Cai/beta), as observed in
GOES-15 SXI imagery. An associated CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery beginning at 12/0636 UTC. WSA/Enlil model output indicated that
a glancing blow from the combination of both CMEs is likely by early on
15 December.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) for the forecast period (13-15 Dec).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (13-15 Dec). 
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor) for the
forecast period (13-15 Dec).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind continued at nominal levels during the period. Solar wind
speed ranged from 270 km/s to 333 km/s with the total field between 1 nT
and 3 nT. The Bz component was mostly southward from +1 nT to -3 nT. 
Phi angle was variable between positive (away) and negative (towards)
sectors.
.Forecast...
A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by a negative-polarity
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to become
geoeffective by late on day 1 (13 Dec) to early on day 2 (14 Dec)
causing an enhancement in solar wind velocity, temperature, density, and
total field. STEREO B PLASTIC data indicates possible velocity
increases reaching 600 km/s. A further enhancement is expected early on
day 3 (15 Dec) due to a glancing blow from the 12 Dec CMEs.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through the first
half of the UTC day on day 1 (13 Dec). By late on day 1 to early on day
2 (14 Dec) a CIR followed by negative-polarity CH HSS is expected to
impact the geomagnetic field causing unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor)
conditions. By day 3 (15 Dec), a glancing blow from the 12 Dec CMEs is
expected to impact the geomagnetic field causing quiet to active
conditions.
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Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2013 Dec 13 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 13-Dec 15 2013 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 13-Dec 15 2013
 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15
00-03UT 2 5 (G1) 4 
03-06UT 1 4 3 
06-09UT 1 4 3 
09-12UT 1 3 3 
12-15UT 1 3 3 
15-18UT 2 2 2 
18-21UT 4 3 2 
21-00UT 5 (G1) 3 2 
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on Dec 13-Dec 14
due to coronal hole high-speed stream effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 13-Dec 15 2013
 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 13-Dec 15 2013
 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15
R1-R2 30% 30% 30%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
during the forecast period (Dec 13-Dec 15) due to the flare potential in
some of the sunspot groups presently on the disk.
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